Exit Polls Divided on Maharashtra and Jharkhand Outcomes Ahead of November 23 Results

As the dust settles after intense campaigning in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, exit polls have provided a mixed outlook for the upcoming election results, set to be announced on November 23. The contrasting forecasts have intensified the political rivalry, with each alliance confident in claiming victory.

Exit Poll Projections: A Fragmented View

In Maharashtra, a total of nine exit polls reveal varied outcomes. Five polls, including Matrize, Peoples Pulse, Chanakya Strategies, Times Now-JVC, and Poll Diary, suggest that the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance is likely to emerge as the leading bloc.

On the other hand, three polls—Dainik Bhaskar, P-Marq, and Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra—indicate a hung assembly. Electoral Edge, diverging from the majority, predicts a victory for the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

For Jharkhand, exit polls are similarly split. Matrize, Chanakya Strategies, and Peoples Pulse favor the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP, while Axis My India and Electoral Edge project a clear win for the INDIA bloc, spearheaded by the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). Other polls, such as Dainik Bhaskar, Times Now-JVC, and P-Marq, predict a hung assembly.

High Stakes and Voting Patterns

The elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand carry immense significance for both the ruling and opposition alliances. Maharashtra’s single-phase election, involving all 288 assembly constituencies, saw an estimated voter turnout of 65%, a notable increase from the 61.74% recorded in 2019.

The primary contest here is between the ruling Mahayuti alliance, comprising the BJP, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction, and the MVA, made up of the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction.

Jharkhand’s assembly elections, conducted in two phases, pit the BJP-led NDA against the JMM-led INDIA bloc. As the second phase concludes, the focus now shifts to how voter turnout and alliances will translate into seat numbers.

Confidence and Criticism Amid Exit Polls

Political leaders have wasted no time interpreting the increased voter turnout to their advantage. Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis of the BJP expressed optimism: “Whenever the percentage increases, it benefits the BJP and the alliance. I am confident we will benefit this time too.”

Fadnavis argued that the increased turnout signals support for the incumbent government, despite the common perception that larger turnouts often favor opposition parties.

On the opposition front, Sanjay Raut, a key ally of Uddhav Thackeray, dismissed the exit polls as unreliable. Labeling them a “fraud,” Raut highlighted past discrepancies in exit poll predictions, including those for the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year.

“They said Modiji would get 400 seats in the Lok Sabha… but what happened there?” Raut confidently asserted that the MVA would secure between 160 and 165 seats.

Leaders from both alliances have joined the fray with bold statements. Shaina NC of the Shinde-led Shiv Sena mocked the opposition: “Your boat has sunk.” Meanwhile, Congress leader Nana Patole emphasized voter frustration with the BJP alliance and praised the increase in voter participation as a sign of change.

The Road to Majority

The Maharashtra Assembly requires 145 seats for a majority, setting the stage for a closely contested election. Aggregated exit poll results suggest the BJP-led Mahayuti may secure around 150 seats, while the MVA is projected to garner 125.

However, Electoral Edge presents an alternative scenario, giving 150 seats to the MVA and 118 to the Mahayuti.

These predictions underscore the finely balanced nature of the contest and the critical role of smaller factions in tipping the scales.

Anticipation Mounts Ahead of Results

The period leading up to November 23 remains charged with speculation and anticipation. The Mahayuti and MVA alliances continue to trade barbs, each side projecting confidence in their strategies and voter appeal.

Similarly, in Jharkhand, the INDIA bloc and NDA brace for what could be a decisive verdict shaping their political futures.