La Nina Set to Return in India, Above-Average Monsoon Expected from July to September
The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center has released its forecast for India’s upcoming monsoon season, predicting above-normal precipitation during the peak months from July to September.
This forecast aligns with the evolving El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, especially the transition from El Nino to La Nina, which has drawn the attention of stakeholders and policymakers.
First Monsoon Prediction by APEC
The APEC Climate Center, known for its meteorological insights, has issued two distinct forecasts covering the periods from April to June and July to September. The recent forecast report highlights India’s expected above-normal precipitation during the crucial monsoon season, attributed to evolving ENSO conditions.
Understanding El Nino and La Nina
El Nino signifies periodic warming of central Pacific waters, impacting weather patterns across the Indian peninsula. In contrast, La Nina denotes cooling ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, which occurs every few years and influences the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
ENSO Alert and La Nina Transition
The APEC’s recent ENSO alert update signals a La Nina WATCH status for April to September 2024. This transition carries significant implications for climate patterns, emphasizing the need for proactive observation due to potential impacts associated with La Nina conditions, including altered weather dynamics and environmental consequences.
July to September Monsoon Outlook
In its outlook, the APEC Climate Center forecasts an enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation for several regions, including eastern Africa, the Arabian Sea, India, the Bay of Bengal, Indonesia, the Caribbean Sea, the tropical North Atlantic, southern Australia, and the southern South Pacific. Moreover, regions like East Asia and northern Australia may also experience increased rainfall during this period.
IMD’s Assessment and Economic Impact
Earlier assessments by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) also indicate favorable monsoon conditions for India, attributing the forecast to reduced El Nino influence and notable La Nina conditions in the Pacific region post-May. The June-September monsoon plays a vital role in India’s economy, contributing substantially to agricultural needs and water resources.
Impact on Summer Season and Regional Weather
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra highlighted the likelihood of intense summer heat due to persistent El Nino conditions, particularly impacting northeast peninsular India, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, north interior Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Odisha. However, El Nino’s neutralization post-summer is anticipated, paving the way for a favorable monsoon season.
Global Overview of Forecast Accuracy
The overall Heidke Skill Score (HSS) across various global regions stands at 65.8%, showcasing varying levels of forecast reliability. The Tropics, Australasia, and North America demonstrate strong HSS values, while Africa presents challenges in forecast accuracy.
Way Forward
The APEC Climate Center’s forecast for India’s monsoon season provides valuable insights for stakeholders and the public, emphasizing the potential for above-normal precipitation. With ongoing transitions in ENSO conditions and global climate patterns, continuous monitoring and preparedness are essential to navigate potential impacts on weather and environmental conditions.
